For institutions of higher education, every piece of data contains valuable insights about the health of the school or the industry. Lately, a lot of the news has painted a somewhat bleak picture. Some schools have had no other choice but to close, and others have had to take drastic steps just to keep themselves open.
By using analytics, when colleges and universities have to make these tough decisions they can do so knowing they are using the most comprehensive information available to them. Here’s a look at some of the challenges the industry is facing, and how a couple of schools are trying to navigate the current climate.
Headed for a cliff
For more than 40 years, the Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education (WICHE) has predicted college enrollment numbers. The organization studies demographic trends to project the number and makeup of future high school graduates. The latest edition of its report, “Knocking at the College Door,” predicts that 2025 will represent a peak in high school graduates, after which will come a decline.
This is not unexpected news: the higher education industry has known it has been approaching an ‘enrollment cliff’ for years. The WICHE report makes its calculations based on births, enrollment in grades 1 through 12, and graduates in each state. The report predicts that by 2030, the number of high school graduates will be 3.1% lower than in 2023, and by 2041, the report expects the number of high school graduates to be 10.5% fewer than in 2023. Schools will have to adjust, and data can help them figure out what they might want to do.
Tough decisions
The data can force schools to make tough decisions to avoid closure. Albright College in Pennsylvania, for example, has already cut more than 50 positions and has considered selling property and art to help make up a $20 million deficit. That deficit is in part due to declining enrollment, which, combined with rising operational costs, is one of the factors that has contributed to the University of New Orleans instituting furloughs. The furloughs—temporary unpaid leave for certain employees – come after moves last year to freeze hiring and spending and the elimination of some positions.
Data can help inform other decisions that might help stave off some of these types of budget cuts. Stony Brook University recently shared the results of a pilot program designed to support first-year students who had been placed on academic probation after their first semesters. Students put on probation typically experience even more difficulties, and their chances for on-time graduation diminish. The program, which involves one-on-one coaching, improved the students’ GPAs and raised Stony Brook’s overall first-year retention rate by 1 percentage point. Student retention is an important factor for school success.
Texas A&M pauses enrollment
Not all of the information that comes out of analytics is bad news. Texas A&M recently announced it would institute an enrollment growth pause to allow its infrastructure to catch up to its growing student body. At its College Station campus, the university will hold new undergraduate students at 15,000 for five to seven years, while it works to improve campus life. A capacity study recommended the school improve space for housing, dining, and parking, among other areas, and add faculty.
Whether positive or negative, none of these decisions are made lightly. They all come after careful parsing of the data. That data can include everything from student information to facilities maintenance to salaries and other expenditures. Colleges and universities need to keep track of their own information as well as wider trends that can impact their enrollment, such as class offerings. The right analytics solution can help drive meaningful changes that advance an organization’s strategic goals.
While the authors of the WICHE report acknowledge that the higher education industry must make adjustments, they advise that it’s not just a one-time fix. Schools need to adopt a new overall approach for their students for the years ahead. In order to figure out what approach works best, colleges and universities need an analytics solution that will help them identify a new approach and put it into practice. Flexibility in such a solution is also important, especially when you consider possible changes in expectations from the federal level as a new presidential administration brings changes to higher education. Data can help make the difference at a time when every decision counts.
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